منابع مشابه
Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?
We examine whether the U.S. rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility or, equivalently, an integrated moving average process with time-varying paramet...
متن کاملDensity forecast revisions and forecast efficiency
We explain that revisions to successive density forecasts of the same outcome, as measured by the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, need not be unpredictable, unlike those to conditional mean forecasts, even when the forecaster uses information efficiently. However one can still test the efficiency of fixed-event conditional density forecasts, similarly to conditional mean forecasts, by t...
متن کاملWhy Does Analyst Forecast Dispersion Predict Stock Return? A Corporate Guidance Perspective
Several studies find that stocks with higher dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts have lower future returns. The phenomenon is popularly interpreted as evidence that stock prices reflect optimism in the presence of differences of opinions and short-sales constraints. This paper shows that stocks with higher forecast dispersion also experience poorer operating performance in the future. We...
متن کاملWhy Does Analysts’ Forecast Dispersion Predict Stock Returns? A Corporate Guidance Perspective
Recent studies find that stocks with higher dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts have lower future returns. The phenomenon is popularly interpreted as evidence that stock prices reflect optimism in the presence of differences of opinions and short-sales constraints. This paper shows that there is also a negative relationship between forecast dispersion and a firm’s unexpected future earni...
متن کاملDrug Forecast
INTRODUCTION Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is the most common non-neoplastic disorder of aging American men.1 The prevalence of BPH increases from 8% in men between 31 and 40 years of age to 50% in men between 51 and 60 years of age to more than 80% in men older than 80 years of age.2,3 Although the exact etiologic mechanism of BPH is unknown, hormonal changes involving the accumulation of...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: National Institute Economic Review
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0027-9501,1741-3036
DOI: 10.1177/002795011723900103